الثلاثاء، 19 أبريل 2011
الاسباب التى منعت الليبين فى النجاح بالاطاحة بالنظام عن طريق المظاهرات السلمية
هدا راى شخصى فى الاسباب التى منعت الليبين فى النجاح بالاطاحة بالنظام عن طريق المظاهرات السلمية مثلما حدث فى تونس و مصر
و اضطرارهم الى استعمال السلاح للتحرير
I thought a lot about why the peaceful revolution succeeded in Tunisia and Egypt and failed in Libya and turned into an armed conflict, and these are my views.
1- In both countries, Tunisia and Egypt, there was a system of government and an army institution that's supposed to protect civilian from any harm coming from abroad or inside the country, and in both case the army just did that. In Libya, the only military institution that exists: a Kaddafi Security Battalion (Katiba Amnia) in every city, armed with all modern weapons and commanded by one of Kaddafi sons or his minions and loyal only to him under the slogan: Allah, Moamar, Libya wa bass. The remaining so called Armed Forces are just empty barracks and officers without tanks. On the other side, as is seen now, all heavy armament is in Sirte, Sebha and Tripoli region.
2 – Both countries enjoy a large number of people, especially in Egypt, the revolution succeeded by the pure power of numbers. If Mubarak was facing less numbers, he would have used the same methods of Kaddafi (brute force).
3 – Libya on the other side has a very limited power of number in its people, and a very huge size, and a tremendous richness of oil and gas, and let's not forget its long coast on the southern rim of the Mediterranean. Could that be what made the west move to save Libyan civilians?
4 – Now if the (Libyan Opposition) doesn't make a spectacular victory, the West may reconsider its position and may welcome back Kaddafi – or his representative; i.e. one of his sons – to rule Libya again and end the conflict, or at least to divide Libya and rule its Western part, leaving Cyrenaica governed by the Council.
5 – And that's a solution that Kaddafi will accept. Cyrenaica, being historically the centre of opposition to Tripoli rule, two Libyas would be created. Cyrenaica from Egypt to Ajdabyiah, and south to Kufra, and Tripolitania, including Fezzan. Respectively, they represent, geopolitically one third to two thirds of the present Libya. This, which might appeal to Kaddafi, and give him a close enemy at hand to fight all the time and there will be no peace in the land.