الثلاثاء، 19 أبريل، 2011

الاسباب التى منعت الليبين فى النجاح بالاطاحة بالنظام عن طريق المظاهرات السلمية



السلام عليكم 

هدا راى شخصى فى الاسباب التى منعت الليبين فى النجاح بالاطاحة بالنظام عن طريق المظاهرات السلمية مثلما حدث فى تونس و مصر 
و اضطرارهم الى استعمال السلاح للتحرير 


I thought a lot about why the peaceful revolution succeeded in Tunisia and Egypt and failed in Libya and turned into an armed conflict, and these are my views.

1- In both countries, Tunisia and Egypt, there was a system of government and an army institution that's supposed to protect civilian from any harm coming from abroad or inside the country, and in both case the army just did that. In Libya, the only military institution that exists: a Kaddafi Security Battalion (Katiba Amnia) in every city, armed with all modern weapons and commanded by one of Kaddafi sons or his minions and loyal only to him under the slogan: Allah, Moamar, Libya wa bass. The remaining so called Armed Forces are just empty barracks and officers without tanks. On the other side, as is seen now, all heavy armament is in Sirte, Sebha and Tripoli region. 

2 – Both countries enjoy a large number of people, especially in Egypt, the revolution succeeded by the pure power of numbers. If Mubarak was facing less numbers, he would have used the same methods of Kaddafi (brute force).

3 – Libya on the other side has a very limited power of number in its people, and a very huge size, and a tremendous richness of oil and gas, and let's not forget its long coast on the southern rim of the Mediterranean. Could that be what made the west move to save Libyan civilians?

4 – Now if the (Libyan Opposition) doesn't make a spectacular victory, the West may reconsider its position and may welcome back Kaddafi – or his representative; i.e. one of his sons – to rule Libya again and end the conflict, or at least to divide Libya and rule its Western part, leaving Cyrenaica governed by the Council.

5 – And that's a solution that Kaddafi will accept. Cyrenaica, being historically the centre of opposition to Tripoli rule, two Libyas would be created. Cyrenaica from Egypt to Ajdabyiah, and south to Kufra, and Tripolitania, including Fezzan. Respectively, they represent, geopolitically one third to two thirds of the present Libya. This, which might appeal to Kaddafi, and give him a close enemy at hand to fight all the time and there will be no peace in the land.

هناك 5 تعليقات:

  1. Agree with the first three pointers here, but not sure about the last.

    Gaddafi's primary reason for battle is to have Libya, all of it, under his command. The mere idea for him to govern Tripolitania is without gain since the lionshare of black gold is in the east. This is no sollution to him otherwise he would've given up on the eastern sector a long time ago.

    ردحذف
  2. for the clever analyst that he analyzed the current complicated situation in Libya, I say, for long time ( hundreds of years) has been one land and will not separate. if you trying to exist the thoughts of separation you are dream, we do not know these names(Cyrenaica,Fezzan ,Tripolitania)we only know (Libya).for you and for others, do not try to talk about division of Libya.in my opinion, the 17th Feb movement has failed because that it was not peaceful revolution, it was armed from the beginning.I think, Moamer AL Qaddafi not as (bin Ali or Mobark), He is so aggressive person. He can do anything to stay.
    LIBYA IS UNITED COUNTRY AND FOR EVER

    ردحذف
  3. أخي الكريم . . جزاك الله خيرا على هذا التحليل الطيب ولكن فاتك أهم سبب
    انني استشعر أننا لم يكتمل يقيننا بعد أن النصر ليس بتعداد الشعوب ولا بمساعدة الناتو ولكن النصر بيد الله
    فعلينا أن نجدد إيماننا ونحاول أن نجعل سببنا هو أننا لم ننضج ايمانيا بعد حتى ننال نصر الله

    ردحذف
  4. نسيت تقول السبب الرئيسي وهوا ان هدا النضام دموي وقد استعمل العنف من اول يوم لا غازات مسيلو للدموع ولا المياه الساخنة وانما بالرصاص الحي والقنابل ودلك لان كل واحد مايبيش القدافي هو جردة ولا يستحق الحياة

    ردحذف
  5. the reason is Tripoli Tripoli Tripoli failed to move on bab Al Azizia still living in fear and as long as fear grip them they remain indoor

    ردحذف